I've just spent the last three days reading large chunks of the remarkable book "What is Intelligence" by Agüera y Arcas. It is best accessed at https://whatisintelligence.antikythera.org/, where you will find text with supporting graphics, charts, and animations. Arcas argues that computation is the substrate for intelligence in all life forms and that prediction is the fundamental principle behind intelligence. Goodall provides a good review of the book and Arcas's ideas. The introduction to the book encapsulates his basic ideas, and I pass on here ChatGPT's condensation of its main points:
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Agüera y Arcas’s introduction contrasts two broad frameworks for thinking about intelligence: an older, classical view of AI and a newer emerging perspective shaped by large language models.
The older view of intelligence and AI.
For decades, most scientists assumed that real intelligence required specialized internal mechanisms—explicit reasoning modules, symbolic logic, or carefully engineered algorithms. Machine learning systems that emerged in the late 20th and early 21st centuries were therefore seen as narrow tools rather than genuine intelligence. They performed tasks such as image recognition or sentiment analysis by approximating mathematical functions that map inputs to outputs. This approach produced impressive “Artificial Narrow Intelligence,” but it seemed fundamentally limited. Predicting the next word in a sentence, for example, appeared trivial—essentially a statistical task. Most researchers believed that such prediction models could never produce general intelligence because true intelligence was thought to require additional structures for reasoning, understanding concepts, planning, or possessing common sense.
The unexpected shift.
The emergence of large neural language models challenged this assumption. When trained on enormous text corpora, systems built for the simple task of next-word prediction began displaying abilities that look strikingly general: answering questions, solving problems, performing professional exams, writing code, and carrying on conversations. The key insight is that language prediction implicitly contains a huge range of cognitive demands. Correctly predicting the next word in many contexts requires background knowledge, reasoning, mathematics, commonsense understanding, and even “theory of mind.” What initially appeared to be a narrow statistical task turns out to embed many of the competencies traditionally associated with intelligence.
The debate about what this means.
This development has triggered a conceptual divide. One camp argues that these systems merely simulate intelligence; they generate convincing language without real understanding. The other camp suggests that this distinction may be misguided. If a system consistently behaves intelligently under questioning—passing tests of knowledge, reasoning, and conversation—then insisting that it is “only imitation” may move the discussion outside empirical science. This echoes Alan Turing’s argument that intelligence should be judged by functional behavior rather than by speculation about hidden inner states.
A broader functional perspective on intelligence.
Agüera y Arcas ultimately pushes toward a functional view similar to how biology understands organs. A kidney is defined not by the specific atoms composing it but by what it does. An artificial kidney that performs the same function is still a kidney. Likewise, intelligence may not depend on a particular biological substrate. If a system reliably performs the functions associated with intelligence—reasoning, conversation, problem solving—then from a scientific standpoint it may already qualify as intelligent.
The conceptual shift.
The old model treated intelligence as a special internal mechanism that machines would someday need to replicate. The emerging view treats intelligence as a set of capabilities that can arise from large systems optimized for prediction and interaction with the world. In this perspective, language prediction is not a trivial task but a gateway problem that implicitly contains much of what we mean by cognition. The surprising success of large language models therefore suggests that intelligence may be less mysterious—and more computationally emergent—than previously believed.
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