The birth of aspirational multiethnic populism

I have pulled some clips from an excellent substack piece by Yascha Mounk to cement and archive his main points for myself and also pass on to MindBlog readers.  He points out that Trump won a more convincing victory in 2024 than 2016…

…by doing what academics are supposed to be expert in: recognizing that the popular understanding of some concept—in this case, populism—is actually constituted by two elements which are logically separable. In his more recent incarnation, Trump has held on to his disdain for longstanding norms and his populist belief in the unfettered prerogative of the majority. But he has also made more explicit than in the past that his political vision is open to supporters from every ethnic and religious group—and has been very shrewd in courting them with an aspirational vision of America.

Though the term is much-overused and often misapplied, the concept of populism remains the most accurate frame for understanding his actions: He believes that, as the rightful voice of the people, he should not suffer any artificial restrictions on his actions—whether by unwritten norms or by explicit limits on the powers of a president.
 
He took evident pleasure in the fact that he owes his victory in large part to his growing popularity among Hispanics, Asian-Americans and African-Americans. He explicitly thanked those demographic groups for their support. He even invoked Martin Luther King Jr., promising to turn his dream into a reality.

For the most part, the executive orders Trump announced in his Second Inaugural are tailor-made to support this vision. His promise to restore order to American cities will resonate among the poorer and more diverse segments of his electorate who are the prime victims of urban crime. His promise to restore free speech is broadly popular among voters without fancy degrees who feel that elites are using their arbitrary moral codes and linguistic conventions as cudgels to wield against them at will.

Indeed, what is most striking about Trump’s vision is that, for all of its exaggerated laments about the dilapidated state of America, it is profoundly aspirational. His paean to colorblindness and meritocracy resonates among many Hispanic and Asian-American voters who feel much more secure in their membership in the American mainstream than Democratic invocations of the distorting category of “people of color” would suggest. And his promise to plant the American flag on Mars recalls the collective ambition and grandeur of the 1960s space race.

The received wisdom for the last decade has been that Trump has made his political home among the “losers of globalization.” …his voters supposedly felt that they were stuck in a long line that did not budge, with the wrong kinds of people—notably women and ethnic minorities—cutting in line.

That was and likely remains Trump’s appeal for one part of his electorate. But another part of his base—just as important—has a very different view of America. Hailing from groups that had once been banished to the fringes of American society or have immigrated more recently, they don’t want to return to a supposedly golden past.

On the contrary, they are optimistic about the future and embrace entrepreneurial values precisely because they feel that their hard work is starting to pay off. They don’t picture themselves as standing in a long, static line to enter a destination they covet; rightly or wrongly, they believe that the doors to it would be wide open if gatekeepers—from journalists to Democrats to elites self-servingly insisting on outdated norms—hadn’t cruelly decided to bar their way.

There are good reasons to remain concerned about this version of populism. Democracies do in fact need rules and norms. When the separation of powers goes out of the window, bad policies and perilous constitutional crises usually follow suit. And, being capable of attracting genuine support among a much broader cross-section of the population than most observers recognized until recently, Trump’s brand of populism is more likely to succeed in transforming the country’s political culture this time around.

…the first step in understanding any political movement lies in taking seriously the sources of its popularity. Trump has forged a brand of populism that has wide appeal and makes big promises about the future. If you want to use a suitably academic term, you might call it aspirational, multiethnic populism. Therein lies the power, the promise and the peril posed by Trump’s second presidency.