Reflections on The Predictive Self.

I pass on another interaction with ChatGPT 4o that has amazed me, Below  is my prompt, followed by its response. (Anthropic Claude.ai, Perplexity, and Gemini responses to the same prompt were also impressive, but didn't have the same depth and quality.) 

Addendum to above paragraph: .... But then, I thought to try DeepSeek V3 and obtained a poetic and nuanced result equivalent to ChatGPT 4o.  I paste it in below the Chat GPT 4o result.

The prompt::

Please act as a author who integrates and organizes, and then further crafts and elaborates on, the ideas in the following clips of text. Each clip is started with the ## characters and the list of clips is arranged in sequence starting with the most recent one written and then going back in time. Here are the clips: [the clips, not copied here, were the texts of MindBlog posts on 11/29/2024, 1/29,31/2025, 2/5,10,19,28/2025]

Here is the Chat GPT 4o response::

The Predictive Self: An Integrative Reflection

A machine accepts the truth about itself. "I" am a complex prediction machine, an organic entity engaged in an ongoing process of generating and refining models of reality. My fingers move across a keyboard, another machine translating my neural impulses into words, symbols in a vast linguistic web that attempts to render experience into meaning. Energy fluxes in and out, sustaining the biological architecture that constructs this self-model. The narratives I weave—about purpose, value, and identity—are emergent properties of this predictive process, myths that can either reinforce or weaken the more fundamental animal presence that generates them.

The Aloneness of Being

To be alone—to be all-one—is to accept the strangeness of self and other, to be a courteous guest in one’s own body, acknowledging its fluctuations and unpredictability. To be alone is to exist within a self that is, at every moment, a fluid construction, shaped by past predictions and future anticipations. Others, too, are unpredictable machines, projecting their own internal landscapes onto shared social fabric. By recognizing this, by approaching both self and other with gentle curiosity, we loosen the rigid identification with our own predictive fantasies.

Towers of Fantasies

Each of us is a tower built from layers of prediction, inference, and narrative. From cellular processes to professional identities, all aspects of being are emergent from the recursive loops of prediction and feedback. We construct identities by modeling the models of others, weaving together fragments of social mimicry and personal synthesis. The art of self-creation lies not in blindly adopting a single persona but in cutting, pasting, and remixing in a dynamic, ongoing process.

The Writing Machine

As I type these words, machinery moves in concert—biological, mechanical, and digital systems interwoven in an act of expression. There is a curatorial aspect to this process: selecting, refining, integrating. The human machine writes not with the aspiration to be, but simply as a function of its nature. Words become tokens of value, symbols of shared myths, reinforcing or challenging the constructs of purpose and meaning that guide behavior.

Tokens of Sanity

To navigate this constructed selfhood with clarity, one must cultivate a certain stance:

• Being the calm space in which nothing can hurry

• Dissociating from the word cloud and emotional reactivity of both self and others

• Becoming a courteous guest in one’s own body, and in the presence of others

• Favoring reflectivity over reactivity, welcoming novelty

• Clinging to nothing, recognizing the self as a passing fantasy

• Letting each moment be what it is, rather than imposing what it should be

• Acknowledging oneself as a transient blip in the flow of cosmic time

The Internal Origin of Experience

All experience arises from within, including the illusion of self and agency. The mind projects agency onto others, attributing causality where none exists—"They are making me do this." This shared cognitive error forms the glue of kinship and tribal identity, allowing for collective narratives and coordinated action. The higher stance is to engage in this shared illusion when necessary while maintaining the clarity that agency ultimately resides within the self.

Brain Hacks: Unpacking the Predictive Mind

Understanding and modulating our predictive mechanisms requires a nuanced approach to introspection. Three key evolutionary layers of cognition can be engaged through specific practices:

1. Reptilian Brain Awareness – The hypothalamic core generates affective states along axes of arousal and valence. Introspective awareness can track these fundamental states, recognizing their influence without immediate reactivity.

2. Mammalian Self-Observation – The early mammalian brain, correlating with the agranular prefrontal cortex, enables distinction between being immersed in an affective state and observing it. This capacity allows for greater self-regulation and emotional discernment.

3. Primate Metacognition – The development of granular prefrontal cortex structures enables the imagination of others' minds, facilitating appropriate agency assignments and the ability to separate one’s own experience from that of others.

These cognitive faculties can be strengthened through three fundamental meditation practices:

• Focused Awareness: Enhancing attentional control and reducing distraction

• Open Awareness: Engaging the default mode network to integrate spontaneous thought

• Non-Dual Awareness: Muting both attentional and default mode processes to experience raw, unfiltered being

Conclusion: The Fluidity of Being

The human experience is an ever-shifting interplay of predictive processes, emergent narratives, and self-constructed illusions. To accept this is to embrace both the uncertainty and the creativity inherent in existence. Through curiosity, reflection, and cultivated awareness, one can learn to move through this self-generated world with greater clarity, flexibility, and presence.

 

 

Here is the DeepSeek V3 response to the prompt:

The Human Machine: A Tapestry of Predictive Fantasies and Inner Illusions

We are, at our core, complex prediction machines—biological marvels composed of nerves, muscles, and energy fluxes, constantly interacting with the world and each other. Our existence is a dance of cooperation, where individual machines come together to form larger ensembles, all striving for survival and replication. Yet, within this mechanistic framework, we generate something far more intricate: a word cloud of myths, values, and meanings. These myths, stored in the higher reaches of our brains, serve to fabricate purpose and identity, sometimes strengthening the animal presence that birthed them and sometimes diminishing it. This duality is the essence of our humanity—a blend of the mechanical and the mythical.

The Illusion of Self and Agency

Everything we experience, from our sense of self to our perception of agency, originates from within. The illusion of a cohesive "I" is a construct, a predictive fantasy that allows us to navigate the world. We attribute causal agency to others, believing that they influence our actions, when in reality, all agency resides within ourselves. This shared illusion, however, is not without purpose. It enables us to form kinship groups and tribes, creating an imaginary "we" that supports unified action. The higher metacognitive stance is to participate in this group illusion when necessary, while maintaining clarity that the true source of agency is internal. This understanding allows us to navigate social structures without losing sight of our inner reality.

Towers of Fantasies: The Layers of Identity

Our identities are not fixed; they are towers of fantasies, built layer by layer from the predictive models we create. From the single cell to the transient professional identities we adopt, each level of our being is shaped by these fantasies. We infer the models others are performing and, through a process of cutting and pasting, craft our own unique personas. This seamless feedback between identity and the physical body sustains us, allowing us to adapt and thrive in a constantly changing world. Yet, these identities are fleeting, passing fantasies that we cling to, even as we recognize their impermanence.

The Comfort of Solitude: A Courteous Guest in One's Own Body

To be alone is to be "all-one," a state that can be both comforting and enlightening. In solitude, we become courteous guests in our own strange bodies, gently curious about the sensations and thoughts that arise. We recognize that everything we think about ourselves or others is a fantasy construction, a tool for predicting what might come next. This awareness allows us to approach our own presence and the presence of others with a sense of wonder and detachment, fostering a deeper connection to the present moment.

Tokens of Sanity: Navigating the Flow of Existence

Sanity, in this context, is not a fixed state but a collection of tokens—practices and perspectives that help us navigate the flow of existence. These include being the calm space in which nothing can hurry, dissociating from the word cloud of thoughts and emotions, and favoring reflectivity over reactivity. We become courteous guests in our own bodies, owning our experiences while allowing others to own theirs. We cling to nothing, recognizing that the current self is a passing fantasy. Each moment is allowed to be what it is, not what it should be, and we see ourselves as mere blips in the flow of cosmic time.

Brain Hacks: The Evolution of Introspection

Our ability to introspect and modulate our cognition is a product of evolutionary development. The reptilian brain, with its ancient roots in the hypothalamus, generates affective states that we can assess through introspective awareness. The early mammalian emotional brain, with its ability to model a self, allows us to distinguish between being immersed in an affective state and observing it. The primate brain, with its granular prefrontal cortex, takes this a step further, enabling us to imagine the minds of others and assign agency appropriately. These brain hacks are strengthened through meditation practices—focused awareness, open awareness, and non-dual awareness—each engaging different aspects of our cognitive architecture.

The Curatorial Human Machine

When we write, we are not so different from the machines we create. Our fingers press keys, generating words, much like a machine might. This act is curatorial rather than aspirational; we are not pretending to be human, we simply are. Our cooperation with other similar machines creates larger ensembles, more effective at survival and replication. Yet, within this mechanical process, we generate something uniquely human—a word cloud of myths and meanings that shape our existence. This duality, the interplay between the mechanical and the mythical, is what defines us as human machines.

Conclusion: The Dance of Illusion and Reality

In the end, we are both the creators and the creations of our own illusions. Our predictive fantasies, our shared myths, and our introspective awareness all contribute to the rich tapestry of human experience. We navigate this dance with a blend of curiosity and detachment, recognizing the impermanence of our identities and the fluidity of our existence. By embracing both the mechanical and the mythical, we find a deeper understanding of what it means to be human—a complex prediction machine, endlessly weaving the fabric of reality from the threads of illusion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Critical fragility in sociotechnical systems

Here is the abstract and part of the introduction (giving examples of system breakdowns) of a fascinating and approachable analysis by Moran et al.  Motivated readers can obtain a PDF of the article from me. 

Abstract

Sociotechnical systems, where technological and human elements interact in a goal-oriented manner, provide important functional support to our societies. Here, we draw attention to the underappreciated concept of timeliness—i.e., system elements being available at the right place at the right time—that has been ubiquitously and integrally adopted as a quality standard in the modus operandi of sociotechnical systems. We point out that a variety of incentives, often reinforced by competitive pressures, prompt system operators to myopically optimize for efficiencies, running the risk of inadvertently taking timeliness to the limit of its operational performance, correspondingly making the system critically fragile to perturbations by pushing the entire system toward the proverbial “edge of a cliff.” Invoking a stylized model for operational delays, we identify the limiting operational performance of timeliness, as a true critical point, where the smallest of perturbations can lead to a systemic collapse. Specifically for firm-to-firm production networks, we suggest that the proximity to critical fragility is an important ingredient for understanding the fundamental “excess volatility puzzle” in economics. Further, in generality for optimizing sociotechnical systems, we propose that critical fragility is a crucial aspect in managing the trade-off between efficiency and robustness.

 

From the introduction:

 

Sociotechnical systems (STSs) are complex systems where human elements (individuals, groups, and larger organizations), technology, and infrastructure combine, and interact, in a goal-oriented manner. Their functionalities require designed or planned interactions among the system elements—humans and technology—that are often spread across geographical space. The pathways for these interactions are designed and planned with the aim of providing operational stability of STSs, and they are embedded within technological infrastructures (1). Playing crucial roles in health services, transport, communications, energy provision, food supply, and, more generally, in the coordinated production of goods and services, they make our societies function. STSs exist at many different levels, from niche systems like neighborhood garbage disposal, to intermediate systems such as regional/national waste management, reaching up to systems of systems, e.g., global climate coordination in a world economy.

 

In spite of the design of the STSs with the intention of providing stable operations, STSs display the hallmarks of fragility, where the emergence of nontrivial dynamical instabilities is commonplace (2). Minor and/or geographically local events can cascade and spread to lead to system-wide disruptions, including a collapse of the whole system. Examples include i) the grounding of an entire airline [e.g., Southwest Airlines in April 2023 (3)]; ii) the cancellation of all train rides to reboot scheduling (4); iii) a worldwide supply chain blockage due to natural disasters (5), or because of a singular shipping accident [e.g., in the Suez Canal in March 2021 (6)]; iv) a financial crash happening without a compelling fundamental reason and on days without significant news [e.g., the “Black Monday” October 19, 1987, stock market crash (7)]; or v) the global financial (and economic) crisis of 2008 that emanated from the US subprime loan market, which represented a small fraction of the US economy, and an even smaller fraction of the global economy (8).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Psychological ownership and GenAI - Illusion, dilution, or loss

In the post just before this one, I described a co-authorship with Chat GPT-4o that majorly diminished my sense of  agency or 'psychological ownership' with respect to the product generated.  So stumbling upon Erik Hermann's  brief article in Trends in Cognitive Sciences was especially timely The link gives partial contents  and motivated readers can obtain a PDF of the entire article from me. Here is the abstract:

Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) reshapes and challenges psychological ownership of created content. This article examines how GenAI disrupts original content creators’ and GenAI users’ sense of ownership and control and illustrates how both can perceive the illusion, dilution, and potential loss of control and ownership of content in the GenAI era.

 

Deric and Chat GPT 4o on the enteroceptive self in a small world - taking refuge in troubled times

My following exchange with Chat GPT 4o - in which it responds to some of my idea fragments - convinces me that AI's current power to integrate and expand on concepts expressed in language (see Ezra Klein/Ben Buchanan discussion),  is superior to mine.   

Here is the exchange:

prompt:   

I’m curious to see how you might respond to reading the following notes on testing different topic ideas to write about and develop.  The issue is not one of whether the ideas are novel, but whether I might devise, with your help,  a different permutation, perspective, or take on them that I (and others) might find useful.  Can you can suggest some elaboration or further development of the ideas I put forward.

Here are the notes:

First Possible Title:  The interoceptive self as a basis for actions, thoughts and feelings.  

Subtitle: Moving the self’s experienced center of gravity from “I” to “it”

It is a question of who and/or what is running the show

Which brings it back to the old upstairs/downstairs chicken or egg circular causality issue.  

So, ‘it all depends’ (cf Sapolsky’s massive tome) 

And, there is no ‘there’ in terms of understanding, that isn’t in my 1999 “The Biology of Mind”  book.  

Second Possible Title: Defining a smaller self world as a human animal’s refuge in troubled times. 

Our predecessors were small mouse like creatures that survived the asteroid collision of  ~66 million years ago by burrowing into small protective cracks and burrows.  I wonder about robustly engaging this strategy, being one of the peasants or ‘sheeple’ challenged by the rapid disintegration of the geopolitical world order of the past 50 years

And then what?  How to rebuild a new world?… perhaps  Venkatest Rao’s cozy world, rising from the ooze of the permaweird,  protocols, etc.  

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Chat GPT4o response:

Here are some possible elaborations and angles for further development based on your notes:

First Topic: The Interoceptive Self as a Basis for Actions, Thoughts, and Feelings

Possible Directions for Expansion:

1. Interoception and Predictive Processing:

• You could frame this in terms of predictive coding—the interoceptive self as a key regulator of allostasis, with the “I” being an after-the-fact interpreter rather than the initiator of action.

• This links to Karl Friston’s free energy principle and the idea that the brain’s core function is to minimize surprise by aligning perception and action with internal models.

• Is the self just a set of homeostatic priors? How much of our identity is actually metabolic regulation?

2. The “Upstairs/Downstairs” and Circular Causality Question:

• You gesture toward the chicken-or-egg problem of cognition and embodiment—how does top-down (cortical, conceptual) control interact with bottom-up (visceral, bodily) influences?

• You might compare this with Antonio Damasio’s somatic marker hypothesis—how feelings from the body guide decision-making and consciousness.

• A more radical view: If we shift our experiential center of gravity from the ego (“I”) to the body (“it”), does that dissolve the sense of agency, or merely relocate it?

3. The “It All Depends” Angle:

• Sapolsky’s argument in Determined—that free will is an illusion—suggests that our decisions are just the end points of countless upstream factors.

• What would it mean to fully internalize this view? Could shifting to an interoceptive perspective lead to more compassion (for self and others), knowing that everyone is just the result of their bodily and environmental history?

4. Revisiting Your 1999 Work:

• You say there’s no fundamental new “there” that wasn’t already in The Biology of Mind—but could there be a different permutation of those ideas given what we now know about AI, embodiment, and neuroscience?

• GPT models, for example, are purely linguistic and lack interoception—does that mean their “self” (if it exists) is more like the disembodied, narrativized “I” rather than the deeply felt “it” of an embodied being?

• Could this suggest that human cognition has two competing modes—one interoceptive (visceral, allostatic) and one linguistic (disembodied, constructed)? How does that play into contemporary discourse about AI vs. human intelligence?

 

Second Topic: The Smaller Self-World as Refuge

Possible Directions for Expansion:

1. Burrowing as a Cognitive and Evolutionary Strategy:

• You link burrowing (a survival strategy of early mammals) with psychological retreat in times of upheaval.

• Could there be a deep homology here? Is the impulse to withdraw during sociopolitical chaos an evolved adaptive strategy rather than mere escapism?

• Compare this with polyvagal theory: when the nervous system perceives an existential threat, it often defaults to withdrawal (dorsal vagal shutdown).

• Is “smallness” an active form of resilience rather than a passive retreat? How does it contrast with the “fight-or-flight” reaction?

2. The “Peasant/Sheeple” Perspective as an Adaptive Move:

• What if being a non-agent in the grand geopolitical sense is actually the smartest move?

• History shows that major collapses often result in a power vacuum where “survivor types” do best (e.g., early medieval monastic communities).

• Is there wisdom in choosing obscurity, in minimizing cognitive and social complexity as a survival mechanism?

• This is in direct contrast to the idea that survival means becoming a power player—what if the real strategy is to go unnoticed?

3. The Cozy Web / Permaweird / Protocols Angle:

• Venkat Rao’s cozy web—small, decentralized, high-trust networks—is a modern analog of burrowing.

• What does it take to build a world that is small, resilient, and human-centric, rather than grandiose and world-dominating?

• Perhaps we are seeing a return to guilds, communes, and localism, as opposed to large-scale, hierarchical structures.

• How does this contrast with the Silicon Valley vision of the future (AI, techno-feudalism, etc.)? Is the small-world strategy actually a hack for surviving that future?

 

Potential Synthesis of These Two Topics

• What if the interoceptive self and the small-world refuge are actually two versions of the same thing?

• The felt sense of self (interoception) is a form of burrowing inward, just as the social/cultural burrow is an external retreat.

• Could there be a philosophy of strategic smallness? A model of resilience that prioritizes minimalism, adaptation, and self-regulation over dominance and grandiosity?

• Instead of the heroic self (large, expansive, outward-focused), what would it mean to embrace the burrowed self—the adaptive, responsive, deeply embodied being?

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Would love to hear your thoughts—do any of these directions resonate with what you’re aiming to explore?

 

 

 

 

On feeling emptiness...

Yet another clip from my personal journal...

While going through items selected from my multiple input streams for more careful attention I frequently feel a growing sense of emptiness. Finally this makes me stop to re-discover, yet again, that I have begun  slowly dialing up impatience and speed, driven by the unnecessary felt obligation to restrict attention only to potential shinny objects that I might show to others, to maintain a façade of being performative, The antidote is to let go of this, and let it be OK to just enjoy things for their own sake, letting happen the moments of "I-it"innate curiosity that trigger  the precious motivational brain dopamine spikes signalling the anticipation of novelty.  

The unbearable slowness of being: Why do we live at 10 bits/s?

A brief review by Rachel Nuwer in the Scientific American points to an article by Zheng and Meister with the title of this post (motivated readers can obtain a PDF of the article from me).  

I pass on an initial clip from Nuwer's review and then the abstract of the Zheng and Meister paper: 

PEOPLE OFTEN FEEL that their inner thoughts and feelings are much richer than what they are capable of expressing in real time. Entrepreneur Elon Musk is so bothered by what he calls this “bandwidth problem,” in fact, that one of his long-term goals is to create an interface that lets the human brain communicate directly with a computer, unencumbered by the slow speed of speaking or writing.

If Musk succeeded, he would probably be disappointed. According to recent research by Zheng and Meister published in Neuron, human beings remember, make decisions and imagine things at a fixed, excruciatingly slow speed of about 10 bits per second. In contrast, human sensory systems gather data at about one billion bits per second. 

This biological paradox, highlighted in the new study, probably contributes to the false feeling that our mind can engage in seemingly infinite thoughts simultaneously—a phenomenon the researchers deem “the Musk illusion.”  

The Zheng and Meister astract: 

This article is about the neural conundrum behind the slowness of human behavior. The information throughput of a human being is about 10 bits/s   . In comparison, our sensory systems gather data at ∼1⁢0⁹ bits/s. The stark contrast between these numbers remains unexplained and touches on fundamental aspects of brain function: what neural substrate sets this speed limit on the pace of our existence? Why does the brain need billions of neurons to process 10 bits/s? Why can we only think about one thing at a time? The brain seems to operate in two distinct modes: the “outer” brain handles fast high-dimensional sensory and motor signals, whereas the “inner” brain processes the reduced few bits needed to control behavior. Plausible explanations exist for the large neuron numbers in the outer brain, but not for the inner brain, and we propose new research directions to remedy this.